Sunday, April 28, 2013

That Insane Autograph Set: Collecting 1997-98 Be A Player Autographed Hockey Cards


Introduction (This is a revision of an earlier posting from 3 years ago.  I would like to thank an anonymous reader named Mike for alerting me to the foil-color-based identification of the manufacturer autographs)

As noted in previous posts, autographs are by far the scarcest commodity in sports card collecting.  Obviously, card companies can make limited runs of game-used jerseys or other types of unique, low-print run inserts, but the willingness of a player to sign his or her name and is by far the most limiting aspect of card production.

Indeed, it is the scarcity of autographs that makes the 1997-98 Be A Player hockey set so amazing to many die-hard collectors.  Because most of the cards in the set had a very large number of autographed parallel cards, it is possible to put together almost the entire set with autographs.  I currently own all of the possible 249 cards with autographs that could be pulled from packs.  In this posting, I will give a history of this set and discuss some of its quirks and great characteristics.

The early history of the “Be A Player” brand

The “Be A Player” brand is a property of the National Hockey League Players’ Association (NHLPA).  Back in 1993-94, the NHLPA contracted with Upper Deck to produce the Be A Player brand without NHL licensed trademark logos as a way to produce another revenue stream for the NHLPA. (footnote 1)  Because the NHLPA and NHL have gone through a series of strikes and lockouts over the past 25 years, the brand was started largely a way to hedge some extra money for the association and players in case of a work stoppage.  In 1994-95 and 1995-96 Upper Deck produced sets with the innovation of having one autograph card per pack.  This was an insanely great bargain for collectors at the time because the packs were actually not that expensive as a mid-priced product.  With the 1994-95 season starting with a long-planned lock out by the NHL owners, NHL players probably had a lot of both time and incentive to sign cards for the first year of Be A Player cards.

The 1994-95 Be A Player set was 180 cards with one autographed parallel card per pack.  From what I know from talking or emailing with people over the years, only 178 cards were available in autographed form with common players signing around 2400 cards each and star players signing less.  Wayne Gretzky was the key autographed card in the set, and Gretzky’s card was super-short printed (SSP).  Upper Deck applied stickers to the back of the autographed cards thus indicating their authenticity.  Upper Deck expanded the set to 225 cards in 1995-96, but I do not know if any players’ autographs were missing from the set (any help I can get here would be appreciated).  Similar to the prior year, there was one autographed card per pack, which was an insane bargain.

In 1996-97, the NHLPA shifted the Be A Player name brand to Pinnacle Brands.  Pinnacle expanded the set to include insert cards that could also be found in autographed format.  These insert series were titled “Biscuit In The Basket”, “Link To History”, and “Stacking The Pads”.  In what would become an ominous sign for the future, Pinnacle did not put stickers or other authenticating marks on the backs of the cards to indicate that the autographs were authentic.  I do not know much about the numbers of cards signed in this year and have not seem many cards from the set.  I assume Pinnacle made it so that one could identify manufacturer autographs with the color of foil on the card.

The 1997-98 Be A Player set

By 1997, Pinnacle Brands was in a lot of financial trouble.  They had entered the sports card industry when it was booming in 1988, but the Junk Card Era of too many card manufacturers was about to take Pinnacle as a victim.  This showed in their execution of the 1997-98 Be A Player set.

While the set was expanded to two series of 125 cards (Series A and Series B = 250 total cards) plus inserts, the execution of the set left a lot to be desired.  Again, autographed cards were inserted one-per-pack but did not have stickers or different back marking authenticity as a manufacturer autograph.  The way that one tells manufacturer-autographed cards from other cards is by the color of foil used in the player's name and the Pinnacle logo.  Gold foil indicates an autographed card that was certified by Pinnacle and pulled from a pack.  Silver foil indicates a base card that should be without an autograph.  If one finds an autograph card with a silver foil name and logo, the card is either a forgery or was signed in person after being pulled from a pack as a base card.  This situation can make identification confusing as one comes across these cards.  Because Pinnacle vanished into bankruptcy, there is no web site or published guidelines to tell collectors 20 years later about the foil color differences.


Caption: Eric Lindros #1 base card is on the left.  Note the silver foil ink used to print his name and the Pinnacle logo.  On the right is an authenticated Brett Hull autographed card.  Note the gold foil ink used to print his name and the Pinnacle logo.

When Pinnacle ran into financial trouble in 1998, much of the production from Series B was left in limbo in boxes in the Pinnacle warehouse (footnote 1).  This problem with Series B has actually been a blessing to collectors interested in completing the set today.  Because these boxes were sold off to distressed merchandise liquidators and other parties, it took them longer to work their way into the system to be available to collectors.  Indeed, unopened boxes of both series still sell for around between $55 and $100 on eBay (checked 12-9-2016) and are a bargain at 16 autographs-per-box, which is insane by today’s standards for a middle-market product.

Attributes of the Set

The hit rate per pack for auto and inserts was:

Autographs 1:1 (These are autographs on any version of the card, regular or die cut)
Die Cut Autographs 1:7
Prismatic Die Cut Autographs - 100 sets made
One Timers 1:7
Stacking the Pads 1:15
Take A Number 1:15

However, this is where things get a little weird and you have to know something about the set.  First, none of the “One Timers”, “Stacking the Pads”, or “Take A Number” insert cards were autographed.  This was a change from previous years.  Second, certain cards were extremely short-printed.  Basically, Eric Lindros only autographed the Prismatic Die Cut cards, so there are only 100 Lindros autographs in existence in this set. (This observation on Lindros comes from an old card dealer with whom I have emailed.  I have never seen it written anywhere.)  Die cut cards have the word PLAYER cut in them along the right border.  Prismatic die cuts are harder to find than foil die cuts with a print run of 100.  When Lindros #1 autographed 1997-98 Be A Player prismatic die cut cards occasionally change hands on eBay, they go for hundreds of dollars despite Lindros never making it to the Hall of Fame due to injuries.  Again, set makers know the Lindros Die Cut Autograph is the scarce card in the 1997-98 Be A Player set.  Indeed, you can buy an Eric Lindros certified autographed card from other sets for under $5.00.

Caption: Eric Lindros #1 Prismatic Die Cut is the hardest autographed card to get in the series.  Only 100 were produced. I had the Lindros autograph authenticated by SGC along with all the Hall of Fame caliber players' cards because they do not have stickers or holograms guaranteeing their authenticity. 

Another anomaly in the set is that no known factory-autographed version of #18 Bryan Berard has ever surfaced in regular or die cut format.  There is no known reason for this omission.  1997-98 was several years before Berrard received a horrible eye injury that cut short his playing career, and he was not between teams that year.  One just has to believe that Berard never signed his cards or that Pinnacle never sent them to him.  They may have thought they would insert them in Series B, but financial trouble kept them from following through.  Who knows?

What makes the 1997-98 Be A Player autograph set fun to try to piece together is (1) it can be done (with the exception of Berard’s and to some extent Lindros’ cards) on a relatively tight budget and (2) that it was such an insane undertaking in 1997-98 by today’s standards.  Getting so many autographs from so many players would likely cost a fortune today and the prices of packs would have to be astronomical.

Overall, one can build a series of most of the common autographed cards in this series on eBay quite quickly, even in 2016.  The series is stacked with lots of minor players who signed a ton of cards.  I have seen 100 autogrpahed card lots go for $30 plus shipping.  The tougher autographs, outside of the Lindros Die Cut, in the series are Martin Brodeur, Brett Hull, Joe Sakic, Al MacInnis, Ray Bourque, and Ed Belfour.  I believe that all of these cards, except maybe for Al MacInnis, were short printed.  There are lots of semi-stars in the set like a young Joe Thornton and Tomas Holmstrom but their cards are pretty plentiful.  Since Pinnacle is not in business, only people that have the original print run specifications for the set, who might have been dealers, would know.

Caption: Ray Bourque #248 and Martin Brodeur #2 are short-printed autographs in the set.  They are still surprisingly affordable on eBay at around $30.

In buying 1997-98 Be A Player autographed cards on eBay, bidders should take care.  Because the cards do not have stickers, holograms or printing on the back saying they are an authentic autograph, there is the chance of forgery.  Make sure that the autographed card has a gold foil ink name and logo and not silver foil ink.  An autographed silver foil card is very likely a forgery.  However, any die cut cards' autographs must be genuine because die cut cards (either foil or prismatic) were not issued without autographs.

The good news for most players' regular-issue cards in the set is there is not much economic incentive to forge signatures because the players were not major players and they signed a ton of cards.  There are plenty of the cards around for little money of these players.  For the bigger names, look for the gold foil or try to pull them directly from packs yourselves.  Since you can still find boxes of 1997-98 Be A Player cards around, this is possible.  Also note that all 1997-98 Be A Player autograph hockey cards were signed with black permanent sharpie-type ink with a relatively thin pen line.  Several cards have slightly wider pen signings, but still in black color.

Also, never purchase an Eric Lindros #1 autographed card that is not a prismatic, die cut card. If anybody owns a gold foil regular issue Lindros card, please send me a scan, and I will update this posting.  While that situation is possible, any buyer should be wary.  All other cards in the set are available in autographed format in their regular version (e.g.,  not a foil die cut or prismatic die cut).

Postscript

After Pinnacle’s Bankruptcy, the Be A Player brand was shifted by the NHLPA to a company started by Dr. Brian Price and was produced in 1998-99 before the NHLPA decided to change the name of their authorized brand to “In the Game”, which eventually became the name of Price’s company.  In 2005, the Be A Player brand was resurrected when the NHLPA broke away from the In The Game company and re-signed with Upper Deck.  However, Upper Deck has not produced Be A Player branded cards since the 2009-10 series.

End Note

Like all other posts, please feel free to make comments.  I review all comments before they are posted in order to reduce spam and keep things on topic.  Also, it may take me a few days to review comments.

Footnotes




Thursday, January 31, 2013

Buying Hot Rookie Cards on eBay: A Bad Investment


Preface

As with other postings, I again want to emphasize that sports cards are a lousy investment.  Buy sports cards for any other reason than to make money.  Buy them because you love sports, admire a certain player, love to make sets or any other reason than to make money.

The Hot Rookie or Young Player

Rookie cards are the currency of sports card collecting in the modern era.  After the market for sports cards shifted from being a market for children to a collectables market at the beginning of the junk wax era in the mid-1980s, the only cards that have high value are rookie cards of famous players.  The best evidence of this fact is to open an issue of the Sports Market Report or go to PSA’s web site at look at the value of cards from recent years (go to: http://www.psacard.com/SMRPriceGuide/ ).  Only Rookie Cards in High Grade (PSA 9 or 10) are very valuable.

Why are rookie cards worth more?  To somebody not in the sports card hobby, this is actually a legitimate question.  The answer is that having a rookie card means that you have a card of a player before they became famous at professional sports.  It’s usually a player’s first chronological card, so there is no ‘sports card history’ of that player.  In other words, you have a card of that player from when he or she was just some ‘Joe Schmo’ and not on the cover of GQ.  Also, a player’s rookie year is likely to be the year where the least number of cards are printed of the player.  Any player that is a star in their rookie year has increased number of cards printed of him or her in subsequent years because of increased popularity.  For example, Panini Prestige printed a complete seven card special insert series of Tim Tebow cards in their 2012 Prestige series just largely because he’s Tim Tebow.  Supply expands to meet demand.

Caption: The Hot Rookie card: 2011 Topps Chrome Colin Kaepernick Black Refractor auto /25.  This card sold on 1-20-2013 on eBay for $1500.00 in an auction that garnered 31 bids.  Kaepernick has started 1/2 the season and has led his 49ers team to the Super Bowl in his 2nd year in the NFL.

As a matter of fact, not even all rookie cards of great players are valuable.  Because Panini, Topps and Upper Deck have so many brands (Prestige, Chrome, Finest, Score, UD, Rookies & Stars, etc., etc.), there are literally dozens to hundreds of different rookie cards of various players.  Again, this is an example of how supply has expanded to meet demand and thus the average price of a rookie card for any player goes down.  Indeed, players that emerge during their rookie season can even have more cards printed of them in late-season card series, which is again an example of supply expanding to meet demand.

The one exception to this supply expands to meet demand rule is autographed rookie cards.  There is a reason that all the valuable hot rookie cards are now only autographed cards.  Autographed cards are limited to the number of cards that a player can or is willing to autograph for the various card companies.  While a player can obviously sign thousands of cards (or the little autograph stickers that are put on cards), the player cannot sign nearly as fast as printing presses churn out new non-autographed cards.  Also, players get tired of signing cards; machines do not get tired of printing them.  As a result, autographed cards become the scarce rookie card commodity.  Again, look at SMR or PSA’s web site at the value of great young players' cards from recent years across all sports.  The only rookie cards that have very high value are the autographed cards.

Buying Rookie Cards of Hot Players

This brings to the front the question of how does the collector acquire valuable rookie cards?  There are two basic ways.  First, the collector can buy new packs and boxes of a card company’s new issues in hopes of snagging one of the randomly inserted autographed rookie cards.  Premium card brands tend to have more rookie autographed cards inserted, which is why the collector pays more-dollars-per-pack for the premium cards.   The card companies also aggressively advertise the “hit-rate” per box of autographs with brands like Bowman Chrome and Bowman Draft Prospects topping the baseball rookie card brands because of aggressive signing of young prospects to autograph contracts.

The problem with buying packs and boxes, however, is that the collector has to roll the dice with Lady Luck on getting hot rookie autographs.  Your chances of getting a hot rookie autograph are much less than getting a card autographed by some “good player” who is not a rookie and thus has 15,000 autographs floating around on existing cards.

Second, and more commonly, the collector can go on eBay (or some other site like Beckett’s Marketplace) and buy a hot rookie autograph card from somebody who was lucky enough to get one in their packs or boxes.  This seems easy enough.  You pay the market rate for the hot rookie’s card, it gets shipped to you, you get to own it, and you capture its future appreciation in value as the player in question wins Super Bowls, scores hat tricks, hit home runs or whatever he or she does.  If it was so easy……

It’s not.  When you buy a hot rookie on eBay, you enter a market where the value of the hot rookie card is tremendously over-inflated as an investment due to non-rational thinking.  Markets and emotions do not mix very well, and the sports card market is one that is jet-fueled by emotion and speculation.  For example, most sports card collectors love sports and have emotional attachments to particular teams and particular players.  I personally think this is a good attribute of collectors and sports cards, but it is a bad recipe for investing.  For example, what makes us search for the highest yield in Certificates of Deposit (for those of us with savings) is that we have no emotional attachment to the financial institution that takes our money as long as they are FDIC insured.  This attribute is what makes the market for Certificates of Deposit so competitive and efficient with relatively low-profits for banks.  We rationally search and take the highest interest rate.  No emotion, no mistakes, pretty rational.

Here’s why the market for hot rookies is irrational:

1. It suffers from hype.  ESPN and the culture of 24 hour media attention raise the profile of young rookie players who are doing well.  They get a disproportional amount of media time.  Also, marketers, looking for the next young star to lock into their advertising plans, tend to make younger stars the focus on their advertising.  For example, how many times have you seen Robert Griffin III on television advertisements this year?

2. It suffers from distorted supply.  For example, let’s say that Robert Griffin III (RG3) does go on to become a Pro Football Hall of Fame Player and is enshrined in Canton, Ohio.  In this case, RG3 would end up signing about 100,000+ more football cards over the rest of his career as supply would rise to meet demand.  This would have a severe effect on the price for autographed RG3 cards.  While there would still be the same number of autographed RG3 rookie cards in existence as today, some of the demand for those cards would be siphoned off by people that just want an autographed RG3 card, just not necessarily a rookie card.  Those people in 2012 have to chase the smaller number of RG3 rookie cards on the market.  In the future, they can chase the any of the 100,000+ cards signed in the future.

3. It suffers from biased expectations of the future.  Psychology shows that there is a human tendency to extrapolate today’s norms into being the future’s norms and to underestimate the chances of bad events happening.  So, for example, because football players like Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffen III had great years this year as rookies (or a 2nd year player in the case of Kaepernick), the estimates of their future accomplishments by many of the buyers on the market assume continued high performance into the long term future.  This is not likely the case.  Without examining the merits of any of the three players, history suggests that injuries, loss of skills, regression to mean performance, off-the-field events or poor coaching will keep them out of the Hall of Fame.  While I am not a betting person, the odds are probably 1-3 that not one of them ever makes it to the Hall of Fame.  While they have shown they are great players for a short period of time (i.e., one season), Hall of Fame credentials are built over a decade of strong performance.  In the short-term 24 hour media world that we live in, nobody is thinking ahead a decade.

Because of these three market anomalies and collectors' emotional attachments to players and teams, the market for hot rookies itself is way too hot or super-inflated.  Prices rocket upward to the point that even if the player go on to make the Hall of Fame, the card probably does not gain too much in value in the future or even drops.  Given the odds of not making the Hall of Fame in any sport, buying hot rookies is an investment huge negative expected value.

Some Evidence

If you do not believe the thesis of this post, let’s look at some data.  I went over to the shelf and pulled out SMR magazine from February 2007 (5 years ago).  On page 92, the valuable PSA graded rookies from 2006 football card issues are listed (similar to how 2012 football card issues would be listed in February 2013 SMR today).

The players whose cards were valuable were:

Jay Cutler
Matt Leinert
Reggie Bush
Vince Young
DeAngelo Williams
AJ Hawk

Their autograph cards in PSA 9 condition were listed as being worth anywhere from $140 to $345. (footnote 1)

Here are some comparisons from eBay today:

2006 Donruss Elite Reggie Bush #204 Auto /100
Last sold on eBay in BGS 9 grade for $25 including shipping on 11-12-2012
SMR in February 2007 was $275.00 in PSA 9.

2006 Donruss Elite Matt Leinart #192 Auto /100
Last sold on eBay ungraded for $13 including shipping on 11-21-2012
SMR in February 2007 was $140 in PSA 9.

2006 Donruss Elite Vince Young #221 Auto /100
Last sold on eBay ungraded for $11 including shipping on 1-22-2013
SMR in February 2007 was $150 in PSA 9. (footnote 2)

While one could argue that 2006 was a particularly bad year for rookie cards of football players, it is an example of how hot rookie cards depreciate in value over time on average.  Players who are hot and the next Joe Namath usually are not. (footnote 3)

Occasionally there is the breakthrough player like Tom Brady, who was drafted in the fifth round and whose cards continue to have high value over time.  However, if you are a veteran collector, by the time you realized that Tom Brady was a great player his rookie cards had already taken off in price.  And for every Tom Brady, there are 25 Matt Leinarts.

What to do?

As I said before, collect great rookie cards for any reason other than trying to make money.  Buy a Colin Kaepernick rookie card because you love the 49ers and you want a piece of history related to their run to the Super Bowl in 2012-13.  Buy a Tim Tebow rookie card because you are a Florida Gator fan or like what Tebow stands for in his religious beliefs.  Buy an RG3 card because you like his pencil mustache and he won the Heisman Trophy.  Just don’t buy their cards to make money.

Also, if you build sets like me, you might want to focus on building sets where there are autographed inserts of rookies.  If you hit a hot rookie auto in a pack or box by chance, it can often finance building the entire base set plus some inserts if you sell it.

If you are not going to hold a hot rookie card for a long time, one can always try arbitraging the market.  That would entail buying a rookie when the price is low and quickly reselling if and when the price goes high.  Again, I do not think this is a good way to make money.  You either need to have insight into NFL talent that other people do not have or you are just playing roulette with your money.  It's better to buy a good low-risk mutual fund.


End Note

Like all other posts, please feel free to make comments.  I review all comments before they are posted in order to reduce spam and keep things on topic.  Also, it may take me a few days to review comments.


Footnotes

1. PSA 10 cards of these 2006 rookies were worth much more, but these should not be considered due to the almost impossible-to-understand nature in which PSA 10s are handed out by PSA.

2. Data was taken by looking at all the completed auctions for 2006 Donruss Elite cards on 1-31-2013.  Donruss Elite was chosen because it was a medium-to-high end brand with autographs only being numbered to 100 on the cards.  It was one of three brands listed in the February 2007 SMR where cards had reported values.

3. It should be noted that Cutler’s autographed rookie cards still hold some value as reported in SMR.